Economic Sentiment

U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 1999 to present

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) has been published monthly since 1952. It’s a survey-based index — households answer five questions about their own financial situation, expected business conditions, and attitudes toward major purchases. The output is a single number; higher = more optimistic. It’s the most widely-cited measure of “what the public feels about the economy.”

UMCSENT is a measure of economic mood, not presidential approval. It correlates with, but is not the same as, how the public feels about the president. A president can be unpopular while the economy feels good (Trump I, 2018-19) or popular while it feels bad (Bush 43 post-9/11, 2001).

UMCSENT timeline, administration-shaded

World events are marked on the time axis. Click the data-zoom slider to focus on a specific period.

Per-administration UMCSENT average

Horizontal reference line is the long-run baseline across the window (82.6). Trump I’s elevated average reflects the pre-COVID expansion; the Biden and Trump II averages sit well below baseline — inflation-era mood.

Vs baseline

World events observed

Events marked on the timeline above. Add more by editing data/sentiment/events.csv in the repository.

Source

• University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, distributed via FRED: University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT — public-domain.